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ES

ES finally broke out of trading range somewhat this week and is currently, as of Friday, backtesting the top of the breakout. 3120 still remains the macro bull/bear line and will be on watch to see what happens. For now ES is just retesting the top of the breakout which sits at 3190 and holding. Multiple darkpool levels on SPY above and below to give us a sense of direction on where the market might bounce and reject. For now the top is being priced in around 3330, but should we see any new prints above we will update. Upside and downside important levels to be watched are updated on the chart, and as for intraday trading we will keep watch throughout the week as always.

VIX FUTURES

VIX futures in a peculiar position. Fell out of trading range with a backtest and got sold off but only to previous breakout. Held the backtest and bounced. Currently sitting in a 4 hour RBR and holding the level, would like that level to become supply before any upside on ES is to be played. As far as a possible upside projection there could be another backtest of the previous upper trading range which is sitting at 33 whereabouts. Fundies still net long on VIX futures by a small margin, and a small uptick in buying previous Tuesday 7/21/2020. Nothing groundbreaking for now but for as long as 4 Hour RBR stays in place and the previous lower trading range is not broken into we are playing with caution.

U.S. DOLLAR

The dollar has been getting dropped for a while but interestingly fundies are starting to buy it up. We are not going long on this currency just yet but there is some possible buying action going on. We will keep an eye on the Index and see what numbers get hit this week. Generally speaking a hold above/below 94.7 on the index will be where the concentration lies for either direction.

10 YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTE

Mixed bag on this one. Asset managers looking like they might be slowly unwinding their positions but that could also take a while to play out. We are keeping an eye out for a possible breakout but in all honesty would need at least 130-131 levels to trade again on the 10 year futures to have an interest in perhaps swinging a position. For now, all cash on this one.

GOLD

Mixed bag on this one. Asset managers looking like they might be slowly unwinding their positions but that could also take a while to play out. We are keeping an eye out for a possible breakout but in all honesty would need at least 130-131 levels to trade again on the 10 year futures to have an interest in perhaps swinging a position. For now, all cash on this one.

APPLE

AAPL is not sitting in any structures as of right now. Some demand at 365 if it holds could be a nice upside. On the top range it filled the gap left behind between Thursday and Friday and there is a DBD around 390 which is in line with the darkpool level we have. Below that interestingly there is a gap left behind around the 313 area which doubles down as a darkpool level. All in all if it runs for ER this week AAPL could hit 390. Immediate supply/demand levels show on chart.

AMAZON

AMZN has quite a bit going on for it as well. Darkpool above sitting at 3267 and 2885 below. On the option flow side of things there’s $1.9 million in OI on the 3400 calls for this week and ITM 3,000 $1.1 million position. Immediate and daily S/D levels on the chart. For now everything pointing to an ER run, we will keep an eye on the weekly happenings and update as everything develops, we would like Friday lows to hold first and foremost. 

SHOPIFY

Darkpool at 1034 above and 880 below. An oddball 1500 call flow long for EOM and 880 puts for August. Very wide range and with ER coming difficult to predict however ATH might be on the horizon soon. Some interesting levels to watch on the chart and we will of course update throughout the week.

SPOTIFY

On the flow side of things we noticed 290C long for 8/31 and 340/350 bull spread for this week. Oddball puts at 220. DP none above and 250 below. SPOT still outside of trading range on the technical side of things and we would like to see it show some strength and get above and hold 270-71 area for a possible upside.

AMD

AMD no DP above or below. Option volume calling for a possibility of 80 for ER with everything long from 73-80. Would need to get over 71 and hold for this projection. Levels to watch below are the obvious gap and 56.5 –  57.5 standing as a daily RBR.

THE COCA COLA COMPANY

We see a shift in the trend with 25 and 50 ema bullish crossover. Price action needs to break above 200 ema for a retest of previous highs. Potential candidate for a bullish swing play into September Monthlies. Options flow also indicates calls leading to puts.

KO HEATMAP

PINDUODUO

Bounced from the 50ema and kept the bullish trend alive. Options flow pointing to “Open” position calls sweeps as high as 110 for this week. Calls leading to puts by a huge margin. Looking for Short-term to Mid-term bullish swing play with stops just below 50 ema.

PDD HEATMAP

STARBUX

Reporting earnings on 28th July. Considerable bullish flow detected for 80 strikes this week. On the technical side, the price action is still below 200 ema. However R&R to the upside is juicy with potential to retest previous highs if we get a favorable earnings outcome.

ALIBABA

BABA bounced around the 25 ema and price action held pretty well into Friday close. This week, we see new call positions being opened for 270, 265 strikes and going as high as 280.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 

With the recent Intel product delay news, TSM also stands to benefit. Huge breakout of the all time highs supported by volume and bullish options activity. This week, options are pointing to a high of 80 and call options volume beat put options by large multiples. There could potentially be a gap fill at around 68 area, however, we are anticipating the bullish momentum to continue.

Docusign

Pulled back to the 25 ema level and then bounced back. DOCU is at a stretch, and we can see a deep pull back towards the 50 ema on the short term. Put options are heavy on 175 strikes for this week.

FACEBOOK

Friday price action barely managed to pull FB back over 50ema. With earnings around the corner and tech names in pressure, we anticipate a pull back towards the 200 ema on the low at around 205/206. Options flow shows new call positions opened for 275 strikes and as high as 290. Puts side heavy around 205 strikes for this week.

INDICATOR OF THE WEEK: Moving Average Fib Ratios

For this week we picked this indicator to share with you: https://tos.mx/U4ueG11

What this indicator does is it automatically paints Fibonacci extensions for you off of a particular Moving Average midline. The nice thing about it is by projecting ratios off of a moving average midline, the fibs are not static but rather move and adapt to the price action. The midline is fully customizable.

WEEKLY TRADING TIP

What most people see in this market is other traders who trade one way or another, take certain positions, certain risks, and they try to mimic that. The reality of it however is, you as a person and the trader you try to mimic as a person are 2 completely different beings. Some traders might be able to take a huge drawdown, whilst others are not emotionally capable of handling that. Some traders like to trade big positions once, others trade smaller positions more often. Some scalp, some swing, some invest….You get the picture.

Don’t try to be someone you’re not. Everywhere you go on the internet there are people trying to lure you in with their promises of riches, and how much they make, and how they were able to do this and that with only this “One secret pattern” that they learned from their Grandma’s uncle and now they’re leading a hedge fund from their bedroom 

That is all negative noise and you need to distance yourself from it as far as possible. Just like with anything in life, try to find your individuality in the stock market. After all, the market is boundless, it has no rules, and it is up to you as the trader to put rules on it that coincide with who you are as a person. Find your niche, nothing good comes off of copying someone else’s trading style for yourself, because people are not the same. There’s plenty of ways to make money in this market so try to learn as much as possible but only to develop a style that you, and you alone are comfortable with entrusting your account to

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